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Patriots vs. Jaguars: High Stakes and Final Analysis for Week 7 Matchup

1019 FInal Anlaysis

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2024 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They can regain confidence lost from a tough start to the season, including this most recent loss to the Bears. They must somehow play free and easy, not as tight, relax and just play. And they must play better. Early in the season, Lawrence was missing throws. Recently, receivers have dropped passes. Members of the secondary are blowing coverages. And so on. Your best players must play well. The Jaguars are better than the Patriots, despite the records. But they must relax and play. On the field, they must harass yet another rookie quarterback. Get him off his spot. Confuse him with coverages.
  • The Patriots will win if: They start fast and put more doubt in the minds of the Jaguars. Struggling teams, particularly ones that feel they are underachieving, can become fragile psychologically. They can lose confidence. New England's best chance is to start fast and put some doubt in the Jags' minds.
  • As Frangie sees it: The Jags need a win in the worst way. They need to start fast, regain some confidence, and a win can happen.
Watford, U.K. — Jaguars defensive end Joe Gaziano (97) during practice at The Grove on October 17, 2024.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and Former Jaguars Defensive End

  • The Jags will win if: The defensive front can get after Maye. He is making his second career start and the Patriots' offensive line has had a difficult time protecting whoever has been behind them. The Patriots may be starting their seventh different offensive line combination in as many games.
  • The Patriots will win if: The Jaguars continue to have mistakes at the same frequency as past games. Drops, penalties, mental errors and other controllable things have been keeping the Jaguars out of the win column. Turnover differential has also been a problem for this Jaguars team.
  • As Lageman sees it: This is a battle of two teams that have the same record but are very different. The Patriots knew this year would be a challenge and a year of development. The Jaguars expected this to be a year to contend. The pressure is all on the Jaguars with the Patriots just hoping to get better and find a few wins along the way. The Jaguars need to focus on getting one win this week.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: They win the turnover battle. The Jaguars are the better team, which means they need to hold onto the ball. They also need to start creating more opportunities for the offense and a rookie quarterback should be a good formula to do that.
  • The Patriots will win if: They can beat the Jaguars' defense with explosive plays. Maye has the arm to deliver and did some nice things last week. If the Jaguars continue to give up those kinds of big plays, it might be the chance for the Patriots to do enough to win.
  • As Martineau sees it: Let's look at this game in a vacuum. Forget the 1-5 start for both teams. The Jaguars are the better football team. Now, it's time for the Jaguars to play like the better football team. I think they will. The Jaguars will win, 27-13.

John Oehser, jaguars.com Senior Writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They pressure Maye defensively and make plays offensively. Maye is making his second career start, meaning he's particularly prone to mistakes when pressured. The Jaguars have dropped too many passes lately, with four dropped touchdown passes against the Bears.
  • The Patriots will win if: They run effectively and get an early lead. The Patriots are at their best when they establish the run. If they can't do that, the Jaguars should be able to pressure Maye and cause havoc.
  • As Oehser sees it: This is a game the Jaguars should win. Despite their record, they're built to win now – and the Patriots are building. If the Jaguars get an early lead, they should be able to maintain it for their second victory of a difficult season.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com Senior Correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They follow the game plan. I heard from coaches and players this week that there needed to be a greater sense of accountability to the plan. Players simply weren't executing what they were supposed to be doing in a loss to the Chicago Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week, and that created a domino effect that we all saw. This team is good enough to win if the players do their jobs. That means both the coaches and the players have to pull it together on Sunday.
  • The Patriots will win if: The Jaguars continue to beat themselves. If the Jaguars stumble in the red zone, trip over themselves on third down and commit unforced errors like that 12-men-on-the-field flag against the Bears, then rookie quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots should find themselves in the sort of close game the Jaguars have struggled to close this season.
  • As Sexton sees it: This week must be a turning point for the Jaguars. Last Sunday was about as bad as it gets, even by this season's standards. They often looked like 11 individuals instead of a cohesive group that knew what they were doing. They might not be the playoff contender I thought they were, but they're better than that and they're better than the Patriots.
Watford, U.K. — Jaguars offensive linemen Anton Harrison (77) and Brandon Scherff (68) during practice at The Grove on October 16, 2024.

J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com Senior Reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They make plays that are there and stop killing themselves with unforced errors such as pre-snap penalties and drops. If they figure out a way to run the ball and get quarterback Trevor Lawrence into an early rhythm, then they have a chance. If they don't and fall behind by a couple scores early, then all eyes will be on the level of effort and any signs of "quit."
  • The Patriots will win if: They start fast and force a couple takeaways. The Bears did a good job of punching at the ball last week, and the Jaguars put the ball on the ground a bit. If Maye has time to work, then he in theory could take advantage of the Jaguars' worst pass defense in the NFL, as they haven't found a consistent pass rush and have had coverage issues all season.
  • As Shadrick sees it: Four teams have started 1-5 and made the playoffs: 1970 Bengals (who started 1-6), 2015 Chiefs, 2018 Colts and 2020 Washington. I'm guessing few of those teams talked about culture issues or players quitting immediately after their Week 6 game. They likely continued to work to fix any issues that kept them from finishing games and finally executed and found success. That's the only thing to do. A Jags bounce-back is must this week at so many levels, especially considering the next four games are against the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions – all NFC contenders. Big Ben-sized alarm bells are ringing, and the clock is about to strike midnight on this season if they don't get their act together this week.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars Team Reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They eliminate simple mistakes. Turnovers and penalties didn't allow the Jaguars to even have a chance last week against the Bears. Clean it up and this team will have a shot against a rebuilding Patriots team.
  • The Patriots will win if: Maye improves upon his debut and plays with no fear. The Patriots may have the same record as the Jaguars, but they do not have the same expectations for their season. Playing with house money can be beneficial for a rookie quarterback looking to find his way in the NFL. If Maye can play unburdened and stand in the pocket, the Pats will have an opportunity to score often.
  • As Stevens sees it: The Jaguars' playoff chances are most likely out of reach at this point, but they need to start playing for their own pride. The Jaguars are more talented than the Patriots and the Jags need to prove it on Sunday at Wembley Stadium.

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