McKay talks OT changes

Mar 18, 2010 at 10:16 AM

Atlanta Falcons President Rich McKay, who co-chairs the NFL competition committee, recently explained the proposal to change the overtime format. The following is McKay's explanation and a summary of the league's overtime history since applying the overtime format to regular season games in 1974.
Q. As far as the overtime proposal, what are some of the pros and cons that is part of the competition committee's discussion?
McKay: Let's look at it statistically. It's pretty clear there's been a change. When sudden death was put in in 1974, it clearly worked very well. It was a good system. Number one, it had excitement. Number two, it broke ties. From '74 to '93, in that time period, you had literally a 50/50 split between those that won the toss and those that lost the toss. Those that won, won 46.8 percent of the time and those that lost won 46.8 percent of the time. So it was a system that worked very well.
Changes occurred over time. Now the numbers have changed pretty dramatically. Now the team that wins the toss wins 59.8 percent and the team that loses the toss wins 38.5 percent. The pros of the switch are it tries to rebalance the advantage that's been gained since '94 based on field goal accuracy being greatly improved, field position being improved.
So I would say to you that there are advocates who will say that we're trying to put in a system that emphasizes more skill and more strategy in overtime as opposed to the randomness of the coin flip.
Those on the other side will tell you it works pretty well, it's exciting, and there's an opportunity for fewer plays, and that is an important product that's needed in overtime.
That's one of the reasons we proposed it for postseason only because historically the postseason has averaged about 1.2 overtime games, and the regular season has averaged about 15.8. That's why we started with the postseason proposal.
Q. This would only apply to the playoffs and the Super Bowl?
McKay: That's correct.
Q. Why make a change? It seems from listening to you that a lot of the reasons for the change are tied to the kicking game and a feeling that maybe you don't want the kicking game to have as strong a hand in deciding overtime games as it apparently now has.
McKay: That's a good question.
I guess I don't see it that way. You'd have to ask the other committee members how they see it. The kicking game has become, in terms of field goal accuracy, exceptional. Accordingly, you now have a situation where if you get a good return, you get one pass that creates, either by pass interference or a completed pass, a 52-yard field goal, and the game is over. In our mind that probably wouldn't have happened prior to '93 as much.
What's happened as a result of the efficiency of the return game or because of the kickoff yard line, coupled with the accuracy of the field goal kickers, is you've now created an advantage, almost I guess a 20 percent advantage, for the team winning the toss.
Overtime game summary (1974-2009)
There have been 445 overtime games in regular-season play since the rule was adopted in 1974 (13 in 2009 season). The breakdown follows:
Results from 1974-2009

445 (13) regular-season overtime games.
240 (7) times the team that won the toss won the game (53.9 percent).
188 (6) times the team that lost the toss won the game (42.2 percent).
17 (0) games ended tied (3.8 percent). Last time: Nov. 16, 2008, Philadelphia 13 at Cincinnati 13.

Possessions from 1974-2009

310 (8) times both teams had at least one possession (69.7 percent).
135 (5) times the team that won the toss drove for winning score (100 FG, 35 TD) (30.3 percent).

Scoring from 1974-2009

312 (11) games were decided by a field goal (70.1 percent).
114 (2) games were decided by a touchdown (25.6 percent).
2 (0) games were decided by a safety (0.45 percent).
17 (0) games ended tied (3.8 percent). Last time: Nov. 16, 2008, Philadelphia 13 at Cincinnati 13.

Of the 445 overtime games, there were 13 miscellaneous situations in which non-standard possessions took place:

9 (0) times the defense or special teams won without registering an official possession (5 interceptions, 2 blocked punts, 1 fumble recovery, 1 blocked field goal) (2.0 percent).
1 (0) times the special teams forced a fumble on the opening kickoff and drove for winning score (0.23 percent).
1 (0) times the punting team recovered a muffed punt and drove for winning score with team muffing punt having no official possessions (0.23 percent).
2 (0) times the team that won the toss elected to kick and the team receiving the ball drove for winning score (0.45 percent).

Results from 1974-1993

201 regular-season overtime games.
94 times the team that won the toss won the game (46.8 percent).
94 times the team that lost the toss won the game (46.8 percent).
13 games ended tied (6.5 percent).

Possessions from 1974-1993

150 times both teams had at least one possession (74.6 percent).
51* times the team that won the toss drove for winning score (36* FG, 15 TD) (25.4 percent).

In addition, one team each in 1998 and 2002 lost the toss but had the first possession in overtime and won the game by a field goal on that possession.
Scoring from 1974-1993

135 games were decided by a field goal (67.2 percent).
52 games were decided by a touchdown (25.9 percent).
1 game was decided by a safety (0.5 percent).
13 games ended tied (6.5 percent).

Results from 1994-2009

244 regular-season overtime games.
146 times the team that won the toss won the game (59.8 percent).
94 times the team that lost the toss won the game (38.5 percent).
4 games ended tied (1.6 percent).

Possessions from 1994-2009

160 times both teams had at least one possession (65.6 percent).
84 times the team that won the toss drove for winning score (64 FG, 20 TD) (34.4 percent).

Scoring from 1994-2009

177 games were decided by a field goal (72.5 percent).
62 games were decided by a touchdown (25.4 percent).
1 game was decided by a safety (0.4 percent).
4 games ended tied (1.6 percent).

Coin toss

436 (13) times the team that won the toss elected to receive (98.0 percent).
9 (0) times the team that won the toss elected to kick off (4 wins) (2.0 percent).
Note: The number in parentheses is the 2009 season total.

Postseason
There have been 27 overtime postseason games dating back to 1958. In 22 cases, both teams had at least one possession.
Overtime games, 2009
indicates Monday night game
#indicates Thursday/Saturday/Sunday night game
indicates Thanksgiving Day game
# Sept. 10, 2009 – Pittsburgh 13, Tennessee 10,at Pittsburgh;Steelers win toss. Logan returns kickoff 20 yards. Drive begins at Steelers 22. Reed kicks 33-yard field goal at 4:32. *Oct. 4, 2009 – Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 20, *at Cleveland; Bengals win toss. Scott returns kickoff 28 yards. Drive begins on Bengals 30. Drive ends on Bengals 42. Huber punts 41 yards out of bounds. Drive begins on Browns 17. Drive ends on Browns 21. Zastudil punts 55 yards. Drive begins at Bengals 24. Drive ends at Bengals 41. Huber punts 43 yards. Drive begins on Browns 16. Drive ends on Browns 27. Zastudil punts 58 yards. Cosby returns punt 10 yards. Drive begins at Bengals 25. Drive ends at Bengals 31. Huber punts 49 yards. Cribbs returns 11 yards. Drive begins on Browns 31. Drive ends on Browns 49. Zastudil punts 51 yards to end zone. Drive begins on Bengals 20. Graham kicks 31-yard field goal at 14:53. *Oct. 11, 2009 – Dallas 26, Kansas City 20, *at Kansas City; Chiefs win toss. Charles returns kickoff 19 yards. Drive begins on Chiefs 27. Drive ends on Chiefs 46. Colquitt punts 38 yards. Fair catch. Drive begins on Cowboys 16. Drive ends on Cowboys 17. McBriar punts 41 yards. Wade returns 7 yards. Drive begins on Chiefs 49. Drive ends at midfield. Colquitt punts 29 yards. Fair catch. Drive begins on Cowboys 21. Tony Romo completes 60-yard touchdown pass to Miles Austin at 6:27. *Oct. 11, 2009 – Denver 20, New England 17, *at Denver; Broncos win toss. Touchback. Drive begins on Broncos 20. Prater kicks 41-yard field goal at 4:45. *Oct. 18, 2009 – Jacksonville 23, St. Louis 20, *at Jacksonville; Jaguars win the toss. Touchback. Drive begins on Jaguars 20. Scobee kicks 36-yard field goal at 6:56. *Oct. 18, 2009 – Buffalo 16, N.Y. Jets 13, *at N.Y. Jets; Jets win toss. Washington returns kickoff 27 yards. Drive begins on Jets 29. Drive ends on Bills 32 as botched snap on attempted field goal results in interception by Wendling. Drive starts on Bills 35. Drive ends on Bills 38. Moorman punts 45 yards. Leonhard returns -2 yards (holding penalty on Jets). Drive starts at Jets 8. Drive ends at Jets 12. Weatherford punts 43 yards. Fair catch. Drive starts at Bills 45. Lowery intercepts Fitzpatrick's pass at Bills 47 (no return). Drive starts at Bills 47. Posluszny intercepts Sanchez's pass at Bills 39 and returns 3 yards. Drive starts at Bills 42. Lindell kicks 47-yard field goal at 12:11. *November 22, 2009 – N.Y. Giants 34, Atlanta Falcons 31, *at N.Y. Giants; Giants win toss. Hixon returns kickoff 33 yards. Drive begins on Giants 34. Tynes kicks 36-yard field goal at 3:49. *November 22, 2009 – Kansas City Chiefs 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24, *at Kansas City; Steelers win toss. Touchback. Drive begins on Steelers 20. Drive ends on Kansas City 38. Sepulveda punts 38 yards to end zone. Touchback. Drive begins on Chiefs 20. Succop kicks 22-yard field goal at 7:32. *# November 29, 2009 – Baltimore Ravens 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 17, *at Baltimore; Steelers win toss. Logan returns 17 yards. Drive begins on Steelers 23. Drive ends on Steelers 37. Sepulveda punts 46 yards. Out of bounds. Drive begins on Ravens 17. Drive ends on Ravens 17. Koch punts 38 yards. Fair catch. Drive begins on Steelers 45. Kruger intercepts Dixon's pass at Ravens 46 and returns 28 yards. Drive begins on Steelers 28. Cundiff kicks 29-yard field goal at 7:35. *December 6, 2009 – New Orleans Saints 33, Washington Redskins 30, *at Washington; Redskins win toss. Thomas returns kickoff 23 yards. Drive begins on Redskins 20. McAlister recovers fumble by Sellers (no return). Drive begins on Redskins 37. Hartley kicks 18-yard field goal at 6:20. *December 20, 2009 – Tennessee Titans 27, Miami Dolphins 24, *at Tennessee; Dolphins win toss. Ginn returns kickoff 23 yards. Drive begins on Dolphins 23. M. Griffin intercepts Henne's pass at Dolphins 45 and returns 3 yards. Dolphins' Camarillo penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness. Drive begins on Dolphins 27. Bironas kicks 46-yard field goal at 3:36. *December 27, 2009 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, New Orleans Saints 17, *at New Orleans; Buccaneers win toss. Spurlock returns kick 19 yards. Drive begins at Buccaneers 23. Barth kicks 47-yard field goal at 6:54. * December 28, 2009 –, Chicago Bears 36, Minnesota Vikings 30, at Chicago; Bears win toss. E. Bennett returns kick 22 yards. Drive begins at Bears 32. Drive ends on Vikings 35 as Gould missed 45-yard field goal attempt. Drive begins on Vikings 35. Drive ends at Vikings 21. Kluwe punts 43 yards to Bears 36. No return. Drive begins on Bears 36. Drive ends on Bears 39. Maynard punts 47 yards to Vikings 14. Reynaud returns 3 yards. Drive begins on Vikings 17. Peterson fumbles, Bears recover. Drive begins on Vikings 39. Cutler passes deep right to D. Aromashodu for 39 yards and touchdown at 5:39. *Postseason Jan. 10, 2009 – Arizona Cardinals 51, Green Bay Packers 45,at Arizona in Wild Card Playoffs;*Packers win toss. Touchback. Rodgers is sacked and fumbles, recovered by Dansby for 17-yard touchdown at 1:18. *Jan. 24, 2009 – New Orleans Saints 31, Minnesota Vikings 28, *at New Orleans in NFC Championship; *Saints win toss. Thomas returns kick 40 yards. Drive begins at Saints 39. Hartley kicks 40-yard field goal at 4:45.

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