JACKSONVILLE – Senior writer John Oehser each week during the 2024 regular season will speak with a writer or media member covering the Jaguars' opponent.
Up this week:
Ryan O'Halloran of the Buffalo News on the Buffalo Bills as they enter Monday’s 2024 Week 3 game against the Jaguars at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Q: The Bills are 2-0, establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AFC East despite major offseason changes. How does this team feel about itself?
A: Since falling behind Arizona 17-3 in the first half of the opener, the Bills have outscored the Cardinals and Miami 62-21 and have a plus-four turnover differential. The 34-28 win over Arizona looks a lot better after watching the Cardinals pummel the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 – and going to Miami on a short week for a division road win always deserves a hat tip. The Bills should feel confident, but not comfortable. The injuries on defense continue to pile up (more on that in a bit).
Q: Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks. What's his storyline this season? Has he stepped his game up in any way and how deep can he take this team?
A: The headline on The Buffalo News' NFL preview section was "All About Allen," and I think it will be … eventually. But so far, it's "All About the Others." Allen has two touchdown rushes, but only 11 total carries (including two kneel-downs). More impressively, he has only 42 pass attempts. He and offensive coordinator Joe Brady are leaning on the run game (46 carries by non-quarterbacks) and 10 players have at least one catch. If Allen has stepped up his game so far, it's committing only one turnover in the first two games – an opening-drive fumble while being sacked against Arizona. I urge any football fan to make sure they watch Allen play in-person at least once – he is that fun to track around the field. As long as he continues to play smart football, Allen can take the Bills on a deep playoff run.
Q: Beyond Allen, assess the Bills offensively. What does this offense need to do be successful? What makes it hard to defend?
A: It's been an odd opening two games for the offense in that the Bills haven't made many big plays (eight passes of at least 16 yards and three rushes of at least 12 yards), have run 32 fewer plays than their opponents and have struggled on third down (6 of 18, 33.3 percent). When this offense is humming, successful and hard to defend, it's because of Allen and two players: Third-year running back James Cook and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. Cook has rushed 30 times for 149 yards and two touchdowns and caught four passes for 49 yards and one touchdown. The more he carries, the less Allen has to. Kincaid had only one catch in Week 1. The Bills clearly had some things dialed up for him in Week 2 – two opening-drive catches – but he took a knee to the helmet after the second catch, which limited his playing time. A player for whom the Jaguars must account for is third-year receiver Khalil Shakir. He leads the Bills in catches (eight) and yards (96) and is a stud from the slot position. He knows how to work the middle of the field and has the trust of Allen on extended plays to get open.
Q: The Bills have been one of the NFL's best defensive teams under Head Coach Sean McDermott. Where does this unit stand through two weeks? What does it do well?
A: Statistically through Sunday night's games, the Bills' defense is middle-of-the-road – 17th in yards allowed (310.5), 18th in rushing (131.5), 12th in passing (179.0) and a woeful 27th on third down (50 percent). But they are allowing only 19 points per game (ninth) and rank tied for fourth in takeaways (four). Out are arguably the Bills' three most important/best defenders – linebacker Matt Milano (torn biceps in August), nickel corner Taron Johnson (forearm in Week 1) and linebacker/defensive captain Terrel Bernard (pectoral strain in Week 2). Like the Jaguars, the Bills have a new defensive coordinator/play-caller in Bobby Babich, a longtime McDermott assistant coach who was promoted in the offseason. But he is essentially running McDermott's scheme with a Babich spin. Babich has done a nice job of picking the right times to blitz and working in Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector at linebacker and Cam Lewis at the nickel spot. This is a well-coached defense. What the defense has done well so far: The aforementioned takeaways (the Bills have scored 24 points off turnovers), preventing the mega-big play (a long completion of 24 yards and no plays of longer than 29 yards overall) and keeping teams from converting on fourth down (1-of-6). They need to be better on third down (opponents are 14-of-28).
Q: The Bills are established as an annual contender. Is this year Super Bowl or bust? Or is this a different storyline because of the offseason changes?
A: The Bills are trying to accomplish the trick of having a transitional year but also contending for the Super Bowl. The championship window is always open with Allen at the height of his powers. The 2022 and 2023 seasons were "Super Bowl or bust" years; the Bills knew they would have to reset their salary cap during the 2024 offseason. After consecutive second-round home playoff losses, the Bills cut many familiar faces (safety Jordan Poyer, cornerback Tre'Davious White and current Jaguars center Mitch Morse), let others walk in free agency (defensive end Leonard Floyd, fill-in linebacker Tyrel Dodson and current Jaguars receiver Gabe Davis) and traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs to Houston. The Bills absorbed a $31 million "dead" cap hit by trading Diggs … and they were fine doing it. This is an offense that is tougher to defend because Diggs isn't being force-fed targets. I picked the Bills to go 11-6 and win the AFC East for a fifth consecutive season despite the roster turnover. The storyline is different, but the expectations are about the same. This is a big game Monday night for the Bills because a) the Jaguars have had their number recently and b) after facing the Jaguars, they play consecutive road games at Baltimore, Houston and the New York Jets.
