JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2024 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

• The Jaguars will win if: They come back from the bye with better energy, particularly to start the game. They hope they will have Lawrence back but may not know either way until later in the week. The Jags must run and neutralize the Houston pass rush. And they must harass Stroud, who has struggled more this season than he did all of his rookie year.
• The Texans will win if: They start fast and put some doubt in the Jags minds early. The Jags are desperately looking for confidence and the early moments of this game will really matter. They will win if they stop the run. The Jags MUST have balance.
• As Frangie sees it: The Texans have tumbled some of late, losing four of their last six. So whichever team starts fast will gain that very important early confidence. The Jags have a chance in this one, but they must prove they can rattle Stroud and the first-place Texans. It could be another game that comes down to the closing minutes.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars Analyst and Former Jaguars Defensive End

• The Jaguars will win: If they have Lawrence at quarterback and the defense can find some type of footing. The defense has struggled across the board this season and face a Texans offense that has also struggled of late. If the Jags can keep Stroud's turnovers coming, they have a chance.
• The Texans will win if: They stop a Jaguars run game that has been inconsistent and pressure the quarterback. The Texans have two of the best edge rushers in the NFL in Anderson and Hunter. They also have one of the best wide receivers in Collins; if he gets loose, it will be a long day.
• As Lageman sees it: This game will be one of the most intriguing games of the year. The Texans have struggled recently and the Jaguars have struggled all year. Which team can find a rhythm and find a way to get a win with the first opportunity in December? Can Lawrence play and give the Jaguars a lift? Can Stroud get back to his rookie ways? How will the Jaguars return from the bye?

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

• The Jaguars will win if: They score over 24 points. That seems to be the magic number between these two teams over the last couple of years. The last time the loser of the game scored 24 or more points was in 2020. The Jaguars have struggled to score a lot of times against Houston and most recently against everyone else. I think 24 points will get the job done on Sunday.
• The Texans will win if: They win the run game. Running back Joe Mixon has been a really good addition for Houston this season. He can alleviate some of the workload on the up-and-down play CJ Stroud. In the first meeting, the Jaguars held the Texans run game in check – but Mixon didn't play.
• As Martineau sees it: Here we go. The final stretch of the season. I might be crazy for believing this, but I think the Jaguars are going to play really well in this game. The pressure is on Houston with the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on deck. The Jaguars will play their best game of the season and pull off the upset, 27-23.

John Oehser, jaguars.com Senior Writer

• The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence returns and they hit a few big plays. The Texans, like the Jaguars, have struggled to stop the deep pass this season – and the Jaguars would have won in Week 4 in Houston had Lawrence connected with two open receivers for touchdowns in the second half. The Jaguars must make the plays they have missed too often this season.
• The Texans will win if: They pressure Lawrence and if Stroud avoids turnovers. The Texans have one of the NFL's best pass rushes, and that has been the strength of a sometimes-struggling defense. Stroud has been vulnerable to turnovers behind a struggling offensive line.
• As Oehser sees it: This is a winnable game for the Jaguars. But they must put the scars of a four-game losing streak behind them. If Lawrence returns and improves what has been a stagnant offense without him, they can pull the upset.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com Senior Correspondent

• The Jaguars will win if: They can run. I expect quarterback Trevor Lawrence will play and ignite an offense that has scored in single digits in his two-game absence. But he's going to need the running game to keep the Texans' pass rush tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson at bay. Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby had a big day in Houston in Week 4. If he has a big day on Sunday, the Jaguars will end their four-game losing streak.
• The Texans will win if: Quarterback C.J. Stroud has time to look for wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Stroud isn't playing his best right now and the Texans have lost three of their last four games. That doesn't mean Stroud can't start his engine with a big day down the field. Collins torched the Jaguars in September for 151 yards. He is back and healthy again, which means the Jags had better make Stroud get rid of the ball quickly.
• As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars have had absolutely nothing go their way this season. It feels like their time to catch a break. They haven't won in more than a month, they're coming off the worst loss in franchise history and a bye week, and their quarterback is nursing a sore shoulder. In other words, there is no factual reason to pick them to beat the Texans. I'm going with the home team to start the final stretch of season with something positive to build on.

J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com Senior Reporter

• The Jaguars will win if: They get a couple takeaways on defense, and figure out a way to stay on the field on offense and score. It looked so ugly before the bye in Detroit that it's hard to remember that the Jaguars had games where they fought and stayed in the games late in the fourth quarter earlier this year. Can it be done again? We're about to find out.
• The Texans will win if: Mixon gets in a rhythm, in turn getting Stroud in a rhythm. The Jaguars defense hasn't fared well against opposing running backs lately – Mixon has six games over 100 yards this season. When he gets warmed up, he can hurt you. If they're running, then Stroud can play-action and hit deep shots to Collins and Dell.
• As Shadrick sees it: The Texans have won nine of the last 10 road games against the Jaguars (nine of the games in Jacksonville, one in London). This Jaguars team should be refreshed and ready for a stretch run that is the second-easiest strength of schedule remaining in the NFL. The Texans are slipping, and are up against it going into their bye in Week 14. There is no room for error anymore for the Jaguars, but keep playing until you can't play anymore. They're in it until they're not.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars Team Reporter

• The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence can play and get the Jaguars' offense going again – and the defense can avoid giving up the big play. Quarterback Mac Jones has started the past two games for Jacksonville and the offense has been completely non-functional in both of those games. If Lawrence can get the team back up to snuff, then they have a good chance at scoring enough to keep things close. The Jags' defense will need to keep Collins in check, which is easier said than done.
• The Texans will win if: They get an early lead and keep pressure on Lawrence. The Texans pass rush has the ability to make it a very long day on the Jags' offensive line. If the Texans can limit mistakes and score early, then they can continue their dominance in Jacksonville.
• As Stevens sees it: I believe Lawrence will play and I'm expecting a close game, similar to what we saw between these two teams in Week 4. The Jaguars' miniscule playoff hopes rely on beating the Texans this weekend. I hope the Jags can get this divisional win and keep the hope alive.